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Found 5 results

  1. Greetings, Slightly earlier than normal but better than being late I guess. I'd like to kick this off by brazenly representing the forum members here on Crestfall in thanking the staff of Crestfalll for their work so far in getting this server up to Closed Beta. It's been over 8 months since the forums were launched and so far we've contributed 23254 23255 posts of a pretty decent quality. In addition we have a small but mature, funny and erudite community here that will form the bedrock of common sense when the hordes arrive later closer to launch. Alliance too I suppose. So back to the thanks. People here from the beginning like me (April 17th) and even bandwagon joiners like Elicas (April 18th), came here and have stuck around for the last 8 months because we genuinely believe that this is our greatest and last shot to replicate the wonderful, social, fun, frustrating and glorious experience that Warcraft was from the very beginning(ish). We are all fully aware that only Crestfall has the core, the staff, the experience and the ability to pull this off. We 98.5% totally trust and believe in you, but based on previous experiences we'd like to leave a little wedge in the door in case shit happens. So far it would be fair to say, the cautious, no drama and 'it'll happen when it happens' approach by the devs has shown itself to be the correct one. So we thank you for your hard work, your patience and your sense of humour to get us to this stage, and we wish you all the best for 2017 so we, all of us, can contribute to this great Crestfall community both on the forums and online. OK, so with the fluffy, emotional, cheap points-scoring over in a failed attempt to get into Beta, let's move on to the forum review. Placeholders' number 1977. This is the term we use for people who want to join the forums by reserving their chosen name only. A lot of these names are nonsense names as a considerable percentage will never end up being players. We will only truly know what that percentage is when the realms are launched. there are also a reasonable number of duplicates. If Crestfall require membership on the forums as a perquisite to play on the realms, we can easily extrapolate the # of players compared to # of members. 'Avatars' number 426. This is a step up from placeholders as these individuals bothered their collective arses to create an avatar. Yes, I know it doesn't take long but we call these the '50%ers' meaning there is a 50% chance that they will end up contributing in some way. This could mean one post, or it could mean playing on a realm. 'Posters' number of 1032. So these are members that have contributed at least one post to the forums. This pretty much 28% of the member population. From experience I can tell you that this is both very high and very encouraging. 'Staff' well duh. We've now had an over 100% increase in staff members thanks to the addition of the Beta testers and a few staff members that snuck in under the radar. At this rate we will soon have one staff member for each player. So the figures above represent a significant reduction in new members joining and reinforces the downward curve from last month. When you drill into the numbers it's actually worse. A lot of the new members are people like efgergferx02 the well-known....SE Asian....supporter of western universities (now sadly deleted). So yeah, the figures are somewhat disappointing but we all know what the reasons are. Our good colleagues in Elysium have launched the Nost PvP and Nost PvE realms before Christmas (two weeks now) and clearly, anyone in the Pserver market has either brought their old toons back like I have, or have rolled new toons up. In addition, they are launching a new PvP realm on January 7th. Why therefore join a forum for a server that is months away when you can play straight away on Elysium? As of now, there is absolutely no point in promoting the server at all in any media format. Not when the launch is months away. There is no point in creating hype and then have said hype deflate over months while progress continues. The staff have taken the decision to launch when good and ready and that's the end of the matter. Over the next few weeks we can expect more Beta testers to be chosen while they go through all the classes which is going to take us into February, so don't expect any improvements soon on forum members. As per instructions, none of the members here are actively advocating the server either. In fact, most of us cringe anytime a thread mentions Crestfall on Reddit and try to dampen down any hype like you wood a grass fire. So keep up the good work I'm going to leave you with a couple of things. The first and most obvious, is to wish all of you a prosperous New Year. Let's hope for the best for 2017, and up near the top is playing on Crestfall. The second is perspective. It's easy to mock Elysium at the moment owing to the number of problems they are having, all of them sadly predictable. But please be kind. They will resolve a lot of these issues and the realms will prosper over time. We all need Elysium to do well, because being successful will vastly increase the player base that will move on to Crestfall. Good evening to you all, it has been a great pleasure for me, so far.
  2. No chronological comments please. So, monthly review time again. We all know the format by now so let's go straight into it. Placeholders' number 1849. This is the term we use for people who want to join the forums by reserving their chosen name only. A lot of these names are nonsense names as a considerable percentage will never end up being players. We will only truly know what that percentage is when the realms are launched. there are also a reasonable number of duplicates. If Crestfall require membership on the forums as a perquisite to play on the realms, we can easily extrapolate the # of players compared to # of members. 'Avatars' number 406. This is a step up from placeholders as these individuals bothered their collective arses to create an avatar. Yes, I know it doesn't take long but we call these the '50%ers' meaning there is a 50% chance that they will end up contributing in some way. This could mean one post, or it could mean playing on a realm. 'Posters' number of 882. So these are members that have contributed at least one post to the forums. This pretty much 28% of the member population. From experience I can tell you that this is both very high and very encouraging. 'Staff' well duh. We've had a 7.69% increase with the official addition of Big Audio Dynamite (/tips hat) So quite a lot happened this month. We've had the official release date of closed Beta, that being December 26th. The webform for applications is due *any day now* which one would assume would have resulted in a significant spike of activity in late November. But as the graph above clearly demonstrates, that's clearly not the case. The real reason as we all know is the Nost 2 hypetrain. It's pretty informative to view the activity on all Nost related fora. For example, there's ~4000 on their discord channel, the forums (now seconded to Elysium) are a hive of activity even with the impediment of the forums themselves, although due for an upgrade I believe. So that's it then, right? Nost comes back and wipes the floor with us meaning that when Crestfall launches we don't get enough numbers to make realms worthwhile, so the realms get merged into one and we'll end up dying a slow death AKA The Rebirth (which is a pretty good server, check it out). NO NOT GOING TO HAPPEN I don't think we need to explain this in much detail. it's already been explained in many, many threads. Ultimately, the return of Nost is a good thing for the PS community. We acknowledge and respect what Nostalrius has brought about and look forward to many days, weeks and months ahead where most of us will participate on their realms to lesser and greater degrees. But there has always been a quiet confidence in the Crestfall community, it comes from the developers and staff, and is reflected in the forums here. We are a community of loyal and unique snowflakes, melded together in a snowball, heading downhill slowly at first, but building up momentum as we head towards our denouement. We have closed beta to look forward to this month, a holiday season to relax and enjoy ourselves, make the most of this month as the hard yards start next year. See you in a month, 31st right?
  3. So yeah. That time of the month where I contribute something factual, functional and useful unlike the other 99.9% of the time. To recap, this is a monthly review of the forum on Crestfall with handy and insightful graphics, because we know people have very short attention spans these days and as such, are probably not even reading this sentence. As we don't have much factual analysis of Crestfall other than ''Beta Soon'' it's difficult to judge how successful the server launch will be. Sooo, on the assumption that Closed Beta will be released in November, just like I swore it would be in October these reviews gives a reflection on how this affects membership numbers and contributions. On with the show. While the administrators should have better facilities to check the numbers out, any member can see these for themselves under the 'Activity' drop down menu on your top left main page, select 'search' and then use the 'member search' tab on the right hand side. The search member button has a 'sort by' option where you can get the information I gathered. There's a direct link here with the member tab on the right hand side So the first topic is # of members... So to explain: 'Placeholders' number 1498. This is the term we use for people who want to join the forums by reserving their chosen name only. A lot of these names are nonsense names as a considerable percentage will never end up being players. We will only truly know what that percentage is when the realms are launched. there are also a reasonable number of duplicates. If Crestfall require membership on the forums as a perquisite to play on the realms, we can easily extrapolate the # of players compared to # of members. 'Avatars' number 331. This is a step up from placeholders as these individuals bothered their collective arses to create an avatar. Yes, I know it doesn't take long but we call these the '50%ers' meaning there is a 50% chance that they will end up contributing in some way. This could mean one post, or it could mean playing on a realm. 'Posters' number of 712. So these are members that have contributed at least one post to the forums. This pretty much 28% of the member population. From experience I can tell you that this is both very high and very encouraging. 'Staff' well duh. Our second graph is join dates: So strictly from the players point of view, this month apart from a really good interview by Orcbit with Asura here not a lot has happened. Now before the staff, developers and admin start frothing at the mouth please be aware we fully understand how much work is going on behind the scenes. The impatience and angst amongst forum members should be looked upon as a confirmation of how excited we are for this server. But for the love of God, please release closed Beta in November. Which moves us on to the analysis. These figures are very important because most if not all private servers, require you to create an account on the forums or similar to register in order to play the content. So therefore, if we know how many forum members we have, we've a pretty good idea about how many actual players that's going to translate to. Server pops are usually defined by player numbers as per peak hours EU time zones over a weekend. So we know (and please don't ban me for two weeks) the max population for Kul'Tiras is set at around 6000. But clearly the actual population will be higher than that as we will have players from all over the world, doing shift work, or wanting to avoid peak hours. Without access then, we really don't know what the total number of players are over a 24 hour period. For example, Nostalrius had over 78,000 members on March 2016 before the C&D announcement. We know that the PvP realm was hitting 13,000 and the PvE was peaking 4,000+ Therefore it seems reasonable to extrapolate that your total potential population in an active progressive server would be ~30% of your forum members. So for Nost, 23,400 active players and extrapolated for us, 766. Still, that's more than Elysium has at present, right? So the good thing is that with the scheduled release date of 2030, we can expect the forum members to be about ~120,000 at present rates of increase. On a more serious note, the main thing to take into account is that with our Section 31 ban on reddit forums we really aren't advertising the server at all. The devs have promised that at some stage in the future the hyping shall commence. Next month we hope to report on what happens to memberships when we actively and professionally promote the server and pass basic landmarks like Beta release. In the meantime, the forum has generated 17,935 posts based on 892 threads. Keep up the good work.
  4. Hello again, So rather than just edit the last post similar to this I'll make a new one so comments are more relevant. I'll do this every month assuming people consider it to be worthwhile. For people unfamiliar to the previous post, this is just a simple review of the membership of the forum, what it might mean for server success and a few nice graphs for people textually challenged. While the administrators should have better facilities to check the numbers out, any member can see these for themselves under the 'Activity' drop down menu on your top left main page, select 'search' and then use the 'member search' tab on the right hand side. The search member button has a 'sort by' option where you can get the information I gathered. This might work as a direct link here So the first topic is # of members... So to explain: 'Placeholders' number 1060. This is the term we use for people who want to join the forums by reserving their chosen name only. A lot of these names are nonsense names as a considerable percentage will never end up being players. We will only truly know what that percentage is when the realms are launched. there are also a reasonable number of duplicates. If Crestfall require membership on the forums as a perquisite to play on the realms, we can easily extrapolate the # of players compared to # of members. 'Avatars' number 245. This is a step up from placeholders as these individuals bothered their collective arses to create an avatar. Yes, I know it doesn't take long but we call these the '50%ers' meaning there is a 50% chance that they will end up contributing in some way. This could mean one post, or it could mean playing on a realm. 'Posters' number of 545. So these are members that have contributed at least one post to the forums. This pretty much 30% of the member population. From experience I can tell you that this is both very high and very encouraging. 'Staff' well duh. Our second graph is join dates: So at this stage after a strong start and then a worrying lull we're continuing that upward curve although it's showing signs of plateauing out. This can't be a major surprise because let's face it, not an awful lot has happened optics-wise. Now the regular members know too well how much has been happening behind the scenes (just read the dev updates), but for the purposes of going to the next stage of development we really need Beta to start in October. Now that's closed Beta, we don't know how many testers there will be but it definitely counts as a marker in relation to progress. If the end October review does not refer to the opening of closed Beta it's not going to look good now, is it? Which moves us on to the analysis. These figures are very important because most if not all private servers, require you to create an account on the forums or similar to register in order to play the content. So therefore, if we know how many forum members we have, we've a pretty good idea about how many actual players that's going to translate to. Server pops are usually defined by player numbers as per peak hours EU time zones over a weekend. So we know (and please don't ban me for two weeks) the max population for Kul'Tiras is set at around 5500. But clearly the actual population will be higher than that as we will have players from all over the world, doing shift work, or wanting to avoid peak hours. Without access then, we really don't know what the total number of players are over a 24 hour period. For example, Nostalrius had over 78,000 members on March 2016 before the C&D announcement. We know that the PvP realm was hitting 13,000 and the PvE was peaking 4,000+ Therefore it seems reasonable to extrapolate that your total potential population in an active progressive server would be ~30% of your forum members. So for Nost, 23,400 active players and extrapolated for us, 559. 559 doesn't sound great spread over two realms does it? Well, it's not accurate, and it won't be accurate until we get swamped with members as we go through closed Beta, open Beta, PTR and then server launch. All I'm thinking of is that in order to get decent numbers on the both realms we'll need 2500+ on Kul'Tiras and 1500+ on Zul'Dare. So I think before server launch we need 15,000-20,000 forum members. Therfore our graphs are going to have to take a very steep incline indeed over the next few months. In the meantime, Brother @Elicas was doing some research of his own on the Kronos and Elysium forums.... So it's good. We have a very, very strong base here. A great forum format, good community and a healthy debate section with a nice edge on trolling and flaming. We're set to go to the next level. Just need the devs to push that shiny button.
  5. Greetings. Recently the members on the Crestfall forum went over 1000. As such I thought I would give a review of where things stand currently. Under normal circumstances, I would expect the administrators to be looking carefully and parsing these figures because they are very important. Activity on the forums are an accurate indicator on what the chances are of success with the realms, provided they are properly scripted and meet generic expectations. The important part here is that growth on the forums tend to be exponential, and so therefore we can expect to see a rapid growth in figures as we go from closed Beta to open Beta and then PTR. While the administrators should have better facilities to check the numbers out, any member can see these for themselves under the 'Activity' drop down menu on your top left main page, select 'search' and then use the 'member search' tab on the right hand side. The search member button has a 'sort by' option where you can get the information I gathered. This might work as a direct link here So the first topic is # of members... So to explain: 'Placeholders' number 623. This is the term we use for people who want to join the forums by reserving their chosen name only. A lot of these names are nonsense names as a considerable percentage will never end up being players. We will only truly know what that percentage is when the realms are launched. If Crestfall require membership on the forums as a perquisite to play on the realms, we can easily extrapolate the # of players compared to # of members. 'Avatars' number 175. This is a step up from placeholders as these individuals bothered their collective arses to create an avatar. Yes, I know it doesn't take long but we call these the '50%ers' meaning there is a 50% chance that they will end up contributing in some way. This could mean one post, or it could mean playing on a realm. 'Posters' number of 351. So these are members that have contributed at least one post to the forums. This pretty much 33% of the member population. From experience I can tell you that this is both very high and very encouraging. 'Staff' well duh. Our second graph is join dates: So as expected, there was a sharp take-up on member when the forums launched in April. This is the usual collection of bored camp followers committed players that join after every new realm announcement. Thereafter we had drops to 80 in May and then 47 in June. While taking into account the push back from the original hype, if I was Asura and Darkrasp at this stage I would be showing signs of stress and concern. Thankfully in July we had a sharp take-up of 167 and then as you can see August the spike of 623 and counting. One of the reasons for this is that the summer holidays are actually beneficial for forums like this, as people are bored, have time on their hands, and are prepared to make an effort for these social activities. There is a long way to go. Nostalrius had over 78,000 members on March 2016 before the C&D announcement. But considering there is another 4 months to go before realm launch I am pretty confident we'll get to between 10k and 20k before that point. A median line of 15k should be enough for viable populations on both realms.